2009 Oscar Predictions

Talk about last minute. Anyway, here are my predictions for the major Oscar categories this year.

Actor in a Leading Role
This is a toss up between Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke, both fantastic performances and both hard to compare to each other as they’re coming from such different places. Rourke’s got the momentum right now though and that counts for a lot with the academy, not to mention his Golden Globe win. As much as I may find it personally difficult to choose, the winner is:

Mickey Rourke

Actor in a Supporting Role
This one should be easy. The only reason the academy wouldn’t give this to Heath Ledger would be because they didn’t want to seem like he was getting the award only because he’s dead. First of, the academy doesn’t give a shit about that and second, he would have won it anyway. I know there’s been talk about Robert Downey Jr., but honestly he’s only nominated so the academy can show him what’s possible when he’s sober for a change.

Heath Ledger

Actress in a Leading Role
This is never an easy category for me to pick and probably the one where I’m wrong the most. Unfortunately I’ve only seen one of the movies these performances were picked from so I don’t have a lot of first hand information to work off of. Based on what I know of the actresses, I’d say that this is a race between Meryl Streep, who gave an uncomfortable, but excellent performance in Doubt and Kate Winslet who unfortunately was in two movies this year that I had no interest in. I’ll probably be wrong, but I’m going to say:

Meryl Streep

Actress in a Supporting Role
Contrary to Leading Role, I saw all but one of the movies for these performances and it’s still hard to pick. Amy Adams was good, but I’m not sure it was Oscar worthy. Taraji P. Henson was one of the better parts of Benjamin Button, but I’m not sure it was Oscar worthy either. Viola Davis was very good, but in all of 2 scenes in the movie. And Marissa Tomei is probably the only one that I might give a statue to here. Knowing what I know of Penelope Cruz however, I bet she gets the award.

Penelope Cruz

Animated Feature Film
Hey folks, here’s how you pick the best animated film of the year. If it’s before 1995 you choose the Disney movie. If it’s after 1995 you choose the Pixar movie. If there’s a Miyazaki film the running, there’s a 75% chance that it will win. This one is Wall-E all the way.

Wall-E

Art Direction
Academy … what are you doing to me? 4 period pieces and Batman? This is nearly impossible. I’m going to go with Benjamin Button though, simply because I can’t see an action movie winning this award and the other choices are such standard go to choices for an art direction award.

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Cinematography
Maybe it was just me, but Slumdog Millionaire was beautifully shot. Granted all the nominees have decent claims here, but I think Slumdog was such a total package of a film that I can’t ignore it here.

Slumdog Millionaire

Costume Design
This is between Benjamin Button and The Duchess. Why The Duchess? Because anything from that era is always a contender for costume. Australia may have some claim, but did anyone even see that movie? I think Benjamin Button gets it though for being period accurate while stylized at the same time.

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Directing
This should be a hard one to pick because these are all amazing directors, but the award goes to Slumdog for one simple reason that I will illuminate later.

Slumdog Millionaire

Film Editing
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Dark Knight pick this one up, but it depends on what kind of night Slumdog is having, because it could easily shift in that direction. Benjamin Button shouldn’t even be here. If there were ever a movie in need of editing it was that epic time consumer. I think this will lean to Slumdog though, Dark Knight has technical awards it can win.

Slumdog Millionaire

Make Up
The aging effects on Benjamin Button’s Brad Pitt were digital for the large part and not prosthetic, but even still, I think it wins over Dark Knight and Hellboy II.

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Music (score)
I’m not certain here, but I’m thinking Slumdog again as I don’t recall anything particularly stand out about Benjamin Button or Milk. Perhaps Wall-E and Defiance had excellent scores, but this is going to be a Slumdog night.

Slumdog Millionaire

Music (song)
I’m going to take a little liberty here and give myself a 66% chance of getting it right. One of the Slumdog songs is going to win, but I have no idea which one.

Slumdog Millionaire

Visual Effects
If there were one award beside supporting actor that Dark Knight could be sure to get it would be this one, that is if a lot of Brad Pitt’s aging in Benjamin Button weren’t digital. To be honest, it was a sight to behold. I think this goes to Button.

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Writing (adapted screenplay)
I can’t explain it, but I think Slumdog gets it. This is honestly a tough category though because the adaptations here were all very good. I think the defining factor will be the film and this is Slumdog’s night.

Slumdog Millionaire

Writing (original screenplay)
This one goes to Milk or Frozen River. Why? Because the writers have never been nominated before. Ok, so I didn’t see Frozen River and have no idea whether it’s worthy of this award, but in my experience this award goes to new writers and this is Courtney Hunt’s first screenplay. Dustin Lance Black has a little more experience, but I want to see Milk win something and that’s the direction I’m going.

Milk

Best Picture
When you really take stock of what’s here, the only movie that stands a chance to win this award is Slumdog Millionaire. Benjamin Button was decent, but ultimately nothing more than a less interesting Forrest Gump. Frost / Nixon was a movie about performances and little else. Milk was fantastic, but a little narrowly focused to be Best Picture in a year where the academy isn’t trying to make a point . The Reader I did not see and that’s all I need to say about that. And Slumdog is probaly one of only 2 or 3 movies from 2008 that I would actually want to own.

Slumdog Millionaire

Frame of Reference

Synecdoche NY was unfortunately a bit of a let down. It all the pieces that I expect from a great Charlie Kaufman film, but it didn’t really do anything with them. I suppose artistically speaking it was quite something, but it wasn’t really what I was looking for. I think I was looking for something with a bit of closure, even the the usual Charlie Kaufman sense where not everyone (or not anyone) ends up any better in the end than when they started. What Synecdoche ultimately offers is a plot that slowly and methodically unravels until all that is left is pure metaphor. And the metaphor itself is good and something I can relate to as a creative person. I guess I was just expecting more. Probably the strangest thing about the movie was the very end. It had a very abrupt ending, even for a Kaufman film and the entire audience just kind of sat there during the credit crawl, not something you see much these days. It was as if everyone in the room at that moment was grasping for that last straw that never came or like me, were sitting there combining the base elements that had been revealed at the culmination of the crucible that was the film; rolling them around in their head to find not necessarily satisfaction, but understanding. As I said, it was certainly a decent film, but it is the toughest Kaufman film to watch and a departure from the watchably esoteric films he has written previously.

On the complete flip side from Synecdoche, I saw Zack and Mirri Make a Porno this past weekend, Kevin Smith’s return to irreverent comedy and no, I don’t count Clerks 2 because it doesn’t actually exist … in my mind at least. Zack and Mirri is the movie Kevin Smith should have made instead of Dogma, Jersey Girl, and Clerks 2; Jay and Silent Bob gets a pass for being completely absurd. This is the kind of film that made me love Kevin Smith movies, this is on par with Chasing Amy. Now grant you, the plot is entirely predictable, and much of the humor terribly low brow, but this is Smith’s element, making low brow verbose and theatrical like some potty mouthed New Jersey Shakespeare. Zack and Mirri is the formulaic “feel good” comedy for people of my generation and it doesn’t fail to deliver. If you like this sort of thing, then you should see it. If you’ve been waiting for Kevin Smith to get is act together, he has. If you want to see the best use of a Pixies song in a movie since Fight Club, here it is.

I’m probably going to end up dumping Rocknrolla off my “to see” list in the theatre and just catch it on DvD at this point, same with What Just Happened. Considering the relatively watered down fair at the movies this season along with the fact that I’ve been mildly disappointed with almost everything I’ve seen this year, I just don’t think I have it in me to sit through another film that doesn’t live up to my expectations. I’d rather stay home and watch Stranger Than Fiction for the 10th time. I suppose there’s still Slumdog Millionaire, which purportedly has Oscar buzz, and the David Fincher film with the really long name about the guy who grows younger, but other than that I just can’t see making an effort anymore. December’s got a couple big movies in it, The Day The Earth Stood Still, for one and Yes Man for the other … ok, ok I guess I’m somewhat interested in Australia despite Bahz Luhrman’s utter pretentiousness. Yes Man though, while it looks like a typical Jim Carrey vehicle, has a chance to transcend the screwball comedy genre and at least be half as meaningful as Stranger Than Fiction … that and Zooey Deschannel is in it and well, that’s all I need to know.

Until then, I’m done with movies this year though. Maybe I should shift my focus back to dating, the only other area of my life that has been more disappointing so far this year. I would say I need a vacation right about now, but I’ve already taken one recently and it didn’t take. I just need a new outlook on life, but I think I’ve been saying that for quite a while now. Meh … I don’t want to get into it now anyway. Maybe next time.

No Country for Good Movies

Can somebody tell me why No Country for Old Men is only playing in three movies theaters in the DC area? This isn’t some no name, limited release film, this is a new film by the Coen brothers. You remember them right? In 1996 their film Fargo won Best Screenplay and was nominated for Best Picture. These aren’t second rate, straight out of film school hacks, these are serious film makers with a history of decent movies. God forbid we give up screen space for what looks like an excellent film, instead opting to show Saw IV.

So am I going to drag myself out to Arlington to see this movie? Probably, either that or I’ll end up seeing Martian Child instead. Wristcutters is finally showing too, although I’d have to find my way into DC and that’s always fun. There’s always next week for No Country seeing as there’s no major releases I’m interested in at that time. If I were the Coen brothers, I’d be pissed. No wait, I’m not and I’m still pissed.

But later that week it was Friday – once again

Why is it when I saw the Trailer for Steve Carell’s new movie “Dan in Real Life” a few weeks ago I yawned, remarking to myself that it looked like something I’d seen a thousand times before and now I’m trying to convince myself that I should go see it tonight? Is it my absurd attraction to romantic comedies or is it just that it’s Friday and I haven’t seen a movie in two weeks, not to mention it was a rough week at work, I was sick last weekend, and sitting by myself in movie theaters appeals to me? That and Steve Carell is a great actor. Or maybe it’s that I’m in the mood to see a movie that has removed the bitter from it’s sweet for a change.

‘Tis the Season

And so Movie Season begins. The Darjeeling Limited is a very solid film, not as simple as Rushmore, or complex as The Royal Tenenbaums, it falls into a nice niche of it’s own. Like every Wes Anderson film it deals with people in pain and denial; people with baggage, literally and figuratively in this case. The movie triumphs in the way that most Wes Anderson films do, in it’s subtleties. Subtlety of acting, of setting, and plot, Subtlety in the way it all comes together with the cinematography and the score, and the art direction that always makes me feel like I’m viewing a world simultaneously in the 20’s and the present. It’s a movie worth seeing and I was lucky enough to see several trailers for films that will be added to my must see list for this season. All in all it’s looking like there will be a wealth of decent cinema this year.

Movie Season

It’s easy to forget that I have a degree in film making. I don’t really use it in my everyday life, though I assume the lessons I’ve learned during my education have helped me in other ways. Starting around September every year I start to remember that BFA in film though.

For most people, the big summer blockbuster season is what they would think of when they hear a term like “movie season”. For the people like me, we live between the end of summer and the beginning of spring, that period of time when the studios release their Oscar contenders and niche films. You can usually count on movie season beginning around november and lasting until the middle of February, but this year movie season is starting early.

I’ve already mentioned The Darjeeling Limited, Wes Anderson’s new film and the harbinger of this years movie season on Sept. 29th. Soon after we’ve got Grace is Gone, starring John Cusack. We’ve got a Ridley Scott movie in November and the latest from the Coen Bros. as well. I’m sure there are also a few decent non name films in the mix as well, but the point is that starting Sept. 29th I can go to the movies and see something genuine again.

Don’t get me wrong, I like the summer blockbusters as much as the next guy, but I live for the movies of substance. These are the kind of movies I consider to be date movies, because if you’re going to go out with me you have to be ready to deal with my love of bittersweet drama and indie-pseudo-romantic-comedies. The movies are coming…now I need a date.

Big Budget Indie Filmmaker

I just took a look at the trailer for the upcoming Wes Anderson film “The Darjeeling Limited” and I came to the realization that Anderson really kind of sits alone as a big budget indie film maker. He’s at a point in his career where he’s enough of a safe bet for studios to spend money on him, has top talent lining up to work with him, but still makes movies that feel like the work of an indie filmmaker.

The other thing I realized is how much more interesting life would be with a Wes Anderson movie soundtrack playing in the background. Wes Anderson does for indie singer-songwriters what Tarantino does for 70’s R&B. I desperately want to peruse Wes Anderson’s music collection.

I’m heading out to see The Simpsons movie tonight. Granted, award-wining cinema it may not be, but there’s something about a Wes Anderson trailer that makes me want to sit alone in a dark theatre surrounded by strangers. Regardless of what the film is, there’s something magical about the big screen.